Archive for February, 2012
posted for Maureen Good
This paragraph and footnote was taken from page 11 of the Traffic Impact Study for the Third Crossing Project. The statement outlines the best case scenario for this multi-million dollar project.
“In terms of overall network performance, there is approximately 57,372 veh-hrs of travel time in the overall transportation network during the typical PM Peak Hour. This represents a savings of 815 veh-hrs of travel time (1% reduction) compared to the Do Nothing scenario, however when expressed in annual terms, this represents a $25.4 M annual delay savings benefit4.
4 Assuming 10% of daily traffic in the PM peak, 260 weekdays per year, and a $12/hr value of time.”
My first argument with this is that a 1% reduction in travel time is probably not a statistically significant number given all the assumptions that models have to employ. Even if it were a significant number it is not a real life number, i.e. it is not something that anyone will derive a benefit from. Instead of a 20 minute travel time, it will be 19.8 minutes with a new bridge, given no changes in driving conditions.
The dollar value assigned to this 1% saving in travel time, $25.4M, is not a tangible number. Neither the City of Kingston nor the tax payers will see or feel this $25.4.M The $25.4M million is the (as footnote 4 explains) assumed labour cost loss due to assumed traffic congestion that might affect what time people get to work. This $25.4M is not going to be real dollars that can be declared to be a direct benefit from this project. It will not be real dollars that will help pay for the bridge.
If this benefit scenario is the best case scenario, I cannot see how this project can possibly be justified, based on the cost, impact to surrounding neighbourhoods, and permanent impact on downtown core business. $120M or $200M for what?
Also, I could not see in the report any statements on impact to affected neighborhoods. I did not see any analysis on how the intersections of Montreal:Brock:Queen:Raglan and all the other intersecting streets and surrounding secondary streets will be able to handle all the new traffic going to the bridge from Queens, hospitals, and workers in the downtown core.
I have been asking for two years, at least, for someone to ease concerns that affected neighborhoods, like Montreal:Raglan will not be extremely negatively impacted by this project.
I have seen no urban ecology, health, safety, environmental analysis of what is going to happen to the affected neighborhoods. Lots of talk about turtles but not people. Very unfortunate, I think and sad that pavement and heavy traffic trumps people and established neighborhoods to the point where there is not even a conversation.
To me, there is nothing in this report that indicates that this bridge is tax payer money well spent, or really anyones money well spend. Especially given the small Growth Projection of 0.4% increase in east bound traffic per year for the next 10 years.
To me it just does not make any sense at all to do this project, none whatsoever.
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